Supergirl is projected to open at $45 million to $50 million domestically when it releases June 26, 2026, down from earlier estimates. Toy Story 5, in its second weekend, is tracking for $80 million to $90 million and is expected to hold the No. 1 spot. Critic reviews are mixed, with Rotten Tomatoes sitting around 56-61% and widespread praise for star Milly Alcock alongside criticism of the script and villain.
DC Studios’ Supergirl was supposed to be the next confident step after last summer’s Superman. Instead, it’s heading into its opening weekend getting outmuscled by a Pixar sequel that’s already been in theaters for a week. Box office tracking keeps sliding, early reviews are split right down the middle, and the one thing almost everyone agrees on is that Milly Alcock deserves a better movie around her.
Here’s the full picture: where the box office numbers stand right now, why Toy Story 5 is dominating a frame it doesn’t even own, and what critics are actually saying about Supergirl itself.
Supergirl Box Office Projections: How Low Have They Gone?
Supergirl’s tracking numbers have been on a steady slide for weeks. The latest projections from Box Office Pro put the film’s domestic opening between $45 million and $50 million, the lowest figures reported yet, when it debuts in 3,600 theaters on June 26. That’s a meaningful drop from earlier tracking, which had placed the film in the $50 million-plus range.
For comparison, Superman, the film that launched this version of the DC Universe last summer, opened to $125 million domestically on its way to a $618 million worldwide total. Supergirl’s entire projected opening weekend is a fraction of that debut, despite Supergirl carrying a reported production budget of $170 million.
Why Supergirl’s Numbers Keep Falling
A few factors are showing up repeatedly in the coverage of Supergirl’s softening tracking:
- Toy Story 5 won’t get out of the way. Pixar’s sequel opened a week ahead of Supergirl and is still dominating its second weekend in the exact frame Supergirl needed to claim.
- Audience awareness is climbing, but interest is flat. Industry trackers have noted that more people know the movie exists without translating into ticket intent, a gap that tends to show up directly in softer pre-sales.
- The film underwent reshoots and a trim in the editing room, reportedly cut by roughly 25 minutes with additional Superman footage added, which can sometimes signal a studio working to fix pacing or tonal issues late in the process.
- Kara Zor-El isn’t Superman. Supergirl simply isn’t as recognizable to the average moviegoer as her cousin, which limits the built-in audience a sequel-adjacent superhero film can lean on.
Supergirl Might Lose Its Own Opening Weekend
Here’s the detail that’s gotten the most attention in box office circles: Supergirl may not even finish No. 1 in its own debut frame. Toy Story 5 is projected to bring in $80 million to $90 million in its second weekend, comfortably ahead of Supergirl’s entire opening estimate. That means a film already a week into release could out-earn a brand-new superhero tentpole in the very weekend that movie is trying to launch.
The same weekend also features Jackass: Best and Last, the fifth and reportedly final entry in that franchise, targeting a domestic opening around $10 million to $12 million from 2,800 theaters. Even that modest target won’t meaningfully affect Supergirl’s position, since the real competition is coming from a film that’s already been in theaters since June 19.
Why Toy Story 5 Is Dominating the Box Office
Toy Story 5’s strength isn’t a fluke. The film marked the biggest opening of the year so far, pulling in $312 million globally and $160 million domestically in its debut weekend. It backed that up with the best Monday of 2026 so far at $17.3 million, and by Tuesday had already passed $200 million at the domestic box office.
That kind of front-loaded strength is consistent with how recent animated sequels have performed during the post-pandemic box office recovery. Films like 2024’s Inside Out 2 and 2025’s Zootopia 2 ranked among their respective year’s highest-grossing releases, and Toy Story 5 looks built to follow the same pattern, especially with a seven-year gap since the last entry building pent-up demand.
It’s also part of a broader, genuinely strong summer for theaters. Hollywood is having its hottest summer since the pandemic, with revenues running just 1.8% behind 2019 levels, according to industry tracking. Animation, in particular, has been one of the few genres reliably pulling in family audiences at scale.
Supergirl Reviews: What Are Critics Saying?
Early reviews of Supergirl have landed in a genuinely split place. The film is sitting around the mid-50s to low-60s percent range on Rotten Tomatoes, the kind of score that signals real disagreement among critics rather than a consensus hit or miss.
The Case Against Supergirl
The harshest take so far comes from Variety’s Owen Gleiberman, whose review carried the headline that’s been circulating widely: that the movie is “so flat it’s super-horrendous.” Gleiberman’s central complaint is that the film leans hard into a self-styled “punk rock” attitude, opening with the character’s dog urinating on a newspaper headline about Superman, while delivering what he describes as a villain who feels overly derivative of Mad Max archetypes. His verdict on the lead performance was double-edged: he found Alcock likable, but felt the character as written was so one-note that it was hard to stay invested in her journey, adding bluntly that the film simply doesn’t have much of a story to tell.
He’s not alone in that read. RogerEbert.com’s Tomris Laffly described the film as a noisy, unimaginative picture carried by little beyond passable action, flat humor, and a collection of slimy intergalactic side characters, despite calling Alcock herself appealing and committed to the role. Kotaku’s review went further, calling the film altogether a mess that feels like a rushed production whose strong characters could have carried something better with a more developed script.
The Case For Supergirl
On the other side, several critics found real value in the film’s grittier, more grief-driven approach. The Guardian’s Peter Bradshaw landed at 3 out of 5, noting moments where you’ll believe this franchise can fly. IndieWire’s Kate Erbland praised the film specifically for staying small in scale rather than over-inflating Kara’s backstory into something bloated.
Collider’s Therese Lacson scored the film 8 out of 10, won over by what she saw as a messy, compelling hero alongside her chaotic superpowered dog. And Jason Momoa’s take on Lobo earned some of the most consistently positive notices in the entire roundup, with multiple critics singling him out as an absolute standout who injects chaotic, thrilling energy into every scene he populates.
The One Thing Everyone Agrees On
Across nearly every review, positive or negative, one verdict repeats: Milly Alcock is the reason to watch. Even critics who walked away disappointed in the film overall consistently exempted her performance from the blame. The throughline, repeated across outlet after outlet, is that the actress is doing more with the role than the script around her gives her room to do.
What Supergirl Is Actually About
For anyone going in without much context, Supergirl follows Kara Zor-El, Superman’s cousin, played by Milly Alcock, as she drifts between dystopian planets rather than settling into life as Earth’s hero. After her dog, Krypto, is poisoned and given just 72 hours before the toxin proves fatal, Kara reluctantly partners with a young girl named Ruthye, played by Eve Ridley, who’s seeking justice against the man responsible for both the poisoning and her own family’s death. Jason Momoa joins as the bounty hunter Lobo, and David Corenswet reprises his role as Superman in a handful of supporting scenes.
The film is directed by Craig Gillespie, known for I, Tonya and Cruella, from a script by Ana Nogueira, and is based on the comic series Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow by Tom King and Bilquis Evely.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much is Supergirl projected to make at the box office?
The latest projections put Supergirl’s domestic opening weekend between $45 million and $50 million when it releases June 26, 2026, down from earlier tracking estimates.
Will Supergirl beat Toy Story 5 at the box office?
It’s unlikely. Toy Story 5 is tracking for $80 million to $90 million in its second weekend, which would put it well ahead of Supergirl’s entire projected opening, even though Toy Story 5 has already been in theaters for a week.
Is Supergirl getting good reviews?
Reviews are mixed, with the film sitting in the mid-50s to low-60s percent range on Rotten Tomatoes. Critics are divided on the script and villain but largely agree that Milly Alcock’s performance is the film’s strongest element.
Who stars in Supergirl?
Milly Alcock stars as Kara Zor-El, with Jason Momoa as Lobo, Matthias Schoenaerts as the villain Krem, Eve Ridley as Ruthye, and David Corenswet returning as Superman in a supporting role.
Why is Supergirl’s opening lower than Superman’s?
Superman opened to $125 million domestically last year, in part because Superman is a far more universally recognized character than Supergirl. Industry trackers also point to flat audience interest, a difficult release frame against Toy Story 5’s second weekend, and reported post-production reshoots as contributing factors.
Stay Updated on the Supergirl Box Office Race
Final opening weekend numbers will be confirmed once the film releases June 26. Check back for updated totals and the full critical consensus once Supergirl actually hits theaters.
